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Fuel duty frozen to 30 June 2027, then up 7.64p (OBR estimate): £5.04 a tank
Fuel duty is 52.95p a litre on both petrol and diesel. That is the temporary rate: 57.95p is the underlying figure, cut by 5p in March 2022 and extended ever since. At Budget 2026 on 28 October the government cancelled the planned rises of 3p on 1 January 2027 and 2p on 1 March 2027 and extended the cut to 30 June 2027. On 1 July 2027 the cut is due to be reversed and duty uprated in line with RPI. The Office for Budget Responsibility estimates that would take the rate to 60.59p, if implemented: a rise of 7.64p, which with VAT on top is 9.17p a litre at the pump and £5.04 on a 55-litre tank.
What changes on 1 July 2027, and what it costs
Duty is frozen until 30 June 2027. The rise then comes in one step, made up of the 5p cut being reversed and an RPI uprating: the OBR’s 60.59p is 2.64p above the pre-2022 rate of 57.95p, which is the uprating it assumes. It carries VAT on top.
| From | Duty | Step | At the pump with VAT | Per tank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | 52.95p | |||
| 1 July 2027 | 60.59p (OBR estimate) | +7.64p | +9.17p | +£5.04 |
Applied to today's average unleaded price of 168.0p, the full 7.64p would put the pump at about 177.2p with nothing else changing. Diesel would go from 197.2p to about 206.4p. Nothing else staying the same is a large assumption, which is the point of publishing the arithmetic rather than a forecast.
What it would cost you over a year
The per-tank figure understates it, because you buy more than one tank. At 9.17p more per litre:
| If you drive | At 35 mpg | At 45 mpg | At 55 mpg |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6,000 miles a year | £71.45 | £55.57 | £45.47 |
| 8,000 miles a year | £95.27 | £74.10 | £60.62 |
| 10,000 miles a year | £119.08 | £92.62 | £75.78 |
| 12,000 miles a year | £142.90 | £111.14 | £90.94 |
| 15,000 miles a year | £178.62 | £138.93 | £113.67 |
Those are the only figures on this site that depend on an assumption about your car rather than on measured data, and they are laid out as a grid for that reason: pick the row and column that match you rather than taking an average that matches nobody.
Why a penny of duty costs more than a penny
VAT is charged on the fuel and the duty together, so it is one sixth of the pump price. Every 1p added to duty therefore adds 1.2p at the pump. A 7.64p rise in duty is 9.17p to you. Our breakdown of a litre shows the whole split as it stands today.
What we are not telling you
Whether the rise happens, or what the rate will be. The 60.59p is the OBR’s forecast assumption, explicitly "if implemented"; the government’s own documents say the rate returns to the pre-2022 level and is then uprated by RPI. The OBR notes that the reversal of the 5p cut has now been delayed five times. We publish the announced policy and what it would cost, not a prediction about what a Chancellor will do.
Duty rates from HMRC's published schedule, with the Budget 2026 position from Budget 2026, paragraph 4.4 (28 October 2026), Budget 2026 overview of tax legislation and rates, item 2.18, Budget 2026 policy costings, fuel duty and OBR Economic and fiscal outlook, October 2026, checked on 2026-11-03. Pump prices from the statutory Fuel Finder data as at 2026-11-10, across the 7,339 forecourts currently reporting unleaded.
Sources: HMRC, HM Treasury (Budget 2026) and the OBR for duty, and the government Fuel Finder scheme run by the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero for prices, which retailers are legally required to submit to. Price figures are recalculated on every build; duty rates change only when the law does.